An algorithm from Imperial College London creates a scenario picture and identifies various factors
Pakistan will be touching new corona peak with approximately 80000 deaths. These estimates show a single day scenario. The country is likely to touch the exact mark of 77,375 deaths on 11 August 2020. The mark will lower down with 600 lesser deaths on 12 August 2020 with 76,737 deaths.
After touching the peak data, the number of deaths per day will start coming down. However, it will still remain very high in the entire month of August 2020. The algorithm predicts a total of 12,993 deaths on 31 August 2020.
Similarly, the algorithm predicts total 10,620 on 01 September 2020. And the trend of lowering of cases continues as there are total 172 deaths on 30 September 2020. Further, it predicts a death count of 157 cases on 01 October 2020. However, there is a significant decrease in these cases as the number count comes down to 5 on 31 October 2020.
It shows that the total death rate in Pakistan may be somewhere between 2.1 million and 2.2 million people.
This algorithm depicts a clear scenario of number of new cases, casualties, hospital capacity and other factors related to corona virus in Pakistan. It shows that these cases will continue to decline but the number of casualties will continue until 10 November 2020. It shows zero casualties from 11 November 2020. However, the damage will already be there by then.
It shows that the total death rate in Pakistan may be somewhere between 2.1 million and 2.2 million people. The scenario date for this projection is 26 January 2021. And it places the intervention from the government as a key factor in increasing or reducing the number of deaths in Pakistan.
Scenarios with and without intervention
It also counts several other factors. It creates two scenarios for the country. One is with intervention and the other is without intervention. For instance, it shows that the maximum requirement of beds may be 501,629 with intervention but the number may exceed to 545,613 without intervention. Similarly, the requirement of maximum number of critical care beds is also on the count. It says that the government may require 36,158 beds with intervention and 39,765 beds without intervention.
This report provide clear directional guidance to the government to impose a lock down in the country. It may be able to control the damage in this way. However, there is a likelihood of increasing cases and casualties if appropriate actions are not taken in time.
You may check the Covid-19 Scenario Analysis Tool from Imperial College London here.
The damning numbers can still be brought under control in case the government is able to adopt strong measures. It includes imposition of a curfew or a strict lock down across the country. It may also include stopping all business, industrial and commercial activities for a little while. Further, it includes strengthening of strengthening all public health measures such as quarantine, isolation, social distancing and contact tracing.
Recently, the WHO had sent a letter to Pakistani government. It strongly recommends that the Government adapts the 2 weeks off and 2 weeks on strategy to offer the smallest curve.